Study Reveals Major Shifts in Medical Profiles of Adults Diagnosed With Autism Since 2010

A comprehensive study tracking medical records in the U.K. and Sweden has uncovered significant shifts in the clinical profiles of adults diagnosed with autism since 2010. Published in BMJ Mental Health, the investigation reveals a pronounced transition away from historical diagnoses such as epilepsy, psychosis, and intellectual disability, toward concurrent conditions like attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety, and depression.

Investigating Long-Term Trends Across Two Nations

To explore how social and demographic patterns of autism diagnoses have evolved, researchers analyzed extensive healthcare data. The evaluation included U.K. primary care records from the CPRD Aurum database encompassing over 47 million patients up to 2023, alongside population-wide registry data from Sweden covering more than 13 million people up to 2021.

The study monitored adults receiving their first recorded diagnosis of autism and tracked concurrent conditions including intellectual disability, ADHD, epilepsy, migraines, anxiety, depression, psychosis, bipolar disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder, stress-related conditions, eating disorders, personality disorders, self-harm, sleep disorders, and chronic fatigue. Researchers also examined initial prescriptions and dispensations for medications such as antipsychotics, antidepressants, antiseizure drugs, and sedatives.

Key Findings and Demographic Shifts

The data analysis highlighted several key trends regarding who is receiving diagnoses:

• New adult autism diagnoses rose sharply in both countries, with U.K. rates climbing from 6 per 100,000 people in 2010 to 64 per 100,000 in 2023, and Swedish rates moving from 43 per 100,000 in 2010 to 65 per 100,000 in 2021.
• The steepest increases occurred among 16 to 20-year-olds, females, and individuals of white ethnic background in the U.K. or those with Swedish-born parents in Sweden.
• Despite rising numbers among females, age-standardized prevalence remained consistently higher for males, reaching 1.4 percent for males and 0.7 percent for females in the U.K. by 2023, and 1.8 percent for males and 1.2 percent for females in Sweden by 2021.
• Concurrent conditions shifted notably over time. For instance, among adults newly diagnosed with autism in the U.K., a recorded history of epilepsy fell from 10 percent to 4 percent between 2010 and 2023, while a history of anxiety climbed from 29 percent to just over 58 percent.

Observational Nature and Study Limitations

Because this was an observational investigation, the authors noted that the data cannot establish definitive reasons for the observed alterations in patient profiles. It remains unclear whether the trends stem from a greater clinical appreciation of nuanced forms of autism, reduced social stigma, shifts in diagnostic practices, or the potential misdiagnosis of other psychiatric presentations. The research team emphasizes that healthcare systems will need to adapt to recognize and address the specific support needs of this shifting population.